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Ethereum price bounce to $2.6K fails to excite neutral-to-bearish pro traders

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While speaking at the Virtual Fintech Forum in Hong Kong on May 27, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin commented on obstacles related to the Ethereum 2.0 rollout. Buterin said that there had been several internal team conflicts in the past five years and as a result, he confirmed that Ethereum 2.0 launch is unlikely to occur before late 2022.

In a May 22 report from Goldman Sachs, analysts said that Ether has a “high chance of overtaking Bitcoin as a dominant store of value.” Furthermore, the report noted the growth of the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and the nonfungible token (NFT) ecosystems being built on Ethereum. Coincidentally, on the very next day, Ether’s price bottomed at $1,750.

On June 14, CoinShares released its weekly fund flows report and Ether investment products had the largest outflows, totaling $12.7 million.

However, the upcoming $1.5 billion options expiry on June 25 could be a turning point for Ether, according to Cointelegraph. This figure is 30% larger than the March 26 expiry, which took place as Ether’s price plunged 17% in five days and bottomed near $1,550.

Despite flirting with $2,600 after a 12% rally over the past week, top Ether traders seem unable to change their neutral-to-bearish positioning according to derivatives data.

The 3-month futures premium is neutral-to-bearish

Normally, Tte 3-month futures will usually trade at a premium to regular spot exchanges. In addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and usually charges more.

The 6% to 17% annualized return on stablecoin lending indicates bullishness whenever the 3-month premium trades above that range. On the other hand, when futures are trading below the stablecoin lending rate, it is a signal of short-term bearish sentiment.

Huobi ETH Sept. futures premium vs. spot market. Source: TradingView

As shown above, the 8% premium — 26% annualized — vanished on May 13, indicating extreme optimism. Since then, it has been ranging near 2.8%, which is equivalent to 10% annualized. Thus, top traders are neutral-to-bearish according to this indicator as it nears the lower level of the expected range.

The options skew shows moderate signs of fear

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when the protective put options premium is trading higher. Whenever this metric surpasses 10%, it is considered a “fear” indicator.

The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range

Deribit Ethereum options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

From May 20 to June 8, the indicator stood near 10%, indicating a higher protective put premium, which is usually a ‘fear’ indicator. However, over the last week, it has slightly improved to 7%, within the “neutral” range, but still close to bearish sentiment.

There is no evidence of bullish growth in top traders’ confidence as Ether tests the $2,600 resistance. So until those indicators flip to neutral-to-bullish, traders should act with extreme care before concluding that a bull run is in place.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price bounce to $2.6K fails to excite neutral-to-bearish pro traders

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Altcoin Roundup: Post-crash prices give investors a chance to build a diversified portfolio

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Welcome to Cointelegraph Market’s Altcoin Roundup, an in-depth newsletter that focuses on investing from the perspective of fundamental analysis and seeks to identify emerging blockchain projects and tokens that fill niche demands within the growing cryptocurrency market.

The concept of multi-sector investing has long been advocated in traditional finance as the conventional approach to building a balanced portfolio. Typical allocations include representation of stocks, government and corporate bonds, commodities and real estate.

Now that the cryptocurrency market has grown to a multitrillion-dollar ecosystem with numerous emerging assets, clear sectors are beginning to emerge. Savvy crypto investors looking to apply portfolio diversification practices to their holdings should begin to pay attention.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Source: CoinMarketCap

The previous Altcoin Roundup discussed some of the top layer-one solutions and coins like Polkadot/DOT, Cosmos/ATOM and Solana/SOL that have been gaining prominence over the past year, but these projects could also fall under the large-cap investment umbrella alongside high-profile assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA.

Once an investor has an adequate representation of blue-chip projects, other emerging sectors like decentralized finance (DeFi), oracles and stablecoins can be considered.

DeFi: Uniswap, Aave and PancakeSwap

Decentralized finance emerged during the summer of DeFi in 2020, and the sector helped kick off the current bull market by bringing a new level of excitement to the crypto ecosystem, which was in need of the next big innovation.

One of the best metrics used to demonstrate the rising success of DeFi as a whole is the total value locked (TVL) ranking, which collectively reached an all-time high at $157.63 billion on May 14, according to data from Defi Llama, and stands at $116.62 billion at the time of writing.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Source: CoinMarketCap

The release of Uniswap’s decentralized exchange (DEX) interface — which enabled new projects to immediately launch and made tokens available to the general public — helped ignite a wave of growth and innovation across the market that continues to expand to this day.

In less than a year, Uniswap evolved into the top DEX serving the crypto community, seeing an all-time record of $5.74 billion in 24-hour trading volume during the market sell-off on May 19 and $5.37 billion in total volume locked on the platform.

Daily DEX volume. Source: Dune Analytics

The vast array of liquidity pools is the primary allure for investors looking to diversify their crypto portfolio. Through these pools, stakers have the ability to earn a yield by providing liquidity for the exchange in return for a portion of the trading fees. A number of pools offer staking returns ranging from 25% to 2,000%, and traders are able to select pools based on a variety of factors, including their appetite for risk.

While Uniswap has led the way for DEXs, there are other options like Aave’s lending platform that has emerged as the highest-ranking DeFi protocol by total value locked, with more than $14.1 billion in TVL at the time of writing.

Aave’s recent decision to offer layer-two (L2) access on Polygon has brought renewable energy to the AAVE ecosystem, as traders and liquidity gladly migrated to the lower-fee environment offered on Polygon. This resulted in a significant boost in TVL for both AAVE and Polygon’s native token, MATIC, which is now the second-ranked protocol by TVL, with $11.08 billion locked on the protocol.

Every balanced portfolio also has a small 1% to 5% allocation reserved for higher-risk assets, and the crypto market has no shortage of high-risk, high-growth assets.

For tokenholders who are open to a little more risk in return for higher yields, the Binance Smart Chain-based PancakeSwap boasts a TVL of $7.67 billion, and offers annual percentage rates (APR) of up to 482.54%, according to the project’s website, with all rewards paid out in the protocol’s native CAKE token.

Stablecoins are the new “savings accounts”

Though a token that stays pegged to a fixed value may not sound like the most attractive opportunity for investors, stablecoins have evolved to play a crucial role in the functioning of the wider cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Stablecoins often serve as the backbone of trading pairs on centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as offering traders a simple way to lock in gains.

The two most prominent stablecoins are Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which have circulating supplies of $60.9 billion and $21.6 billion tokens, respectively. Tether is currently the most traded crypto token, boasting 24-hour trading volumes that range from $100 billion to $290 billion.

Tether (USDT) vs. USD Coin (USDC) vs. DAI circulating supply. Source: CoinGecko

Other popular stablecoins include Binance USD (BUSD), the stablecoin created for use within the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem, as well as the algorithmically controlled stablecoin DAI, which is minted via pledging collateral on the Maker protocol.

For those looking to earn a little extra yield while in the safety of stablecoins, there are multiple options available such as depositing tokens into a lending protocol like AAVE to earn up to 5% on deposits or the decentralized stablecoin exchange Curve, which offers yields of up to 50% for some stablecoins pools offered.

Other popular options include supplying liquidity for the various decentralized exchanges like PancakeSwap, which offers 8.64% for its DAI-BUSD liquidity pool, or QuickSwap, which offers a reward plus fee of the annual percent yield of 15.01% for its USDT-USDC pool and 26.75% for its DAI-USDC pool.

Oracles

In a world that is becoming increasingly dominated by digital data, no cryptocurrency portfolio would be complete without access to an oracle provider. These entities are the industry’s heavyweights that facilitate the secure exchange of data and information within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, as well as wider financial markets.

Currently, Chainlink is one of the most dominant oracle projects and a key player that comprises a thriving open-source community of data providers, node operators, smart contract developers, researchers and security auditors.

While the Chainlink network doesn’t currently offer a direct way to earn a yield through a simplified staking or governance mechanism, it is easy for tokenholders to put their stash to work in DEX liquidity pools and DeFi protocols like Aave.

For investors who are not ready to trust decentralized exchanges and DeFi platforms, centralized yield-bearing companies like Nexo, Celsius and BlockFi are also available for crypto investors looking to earn a return on their holdings.

Centralized exchanges like Coinbase and Binance also offer direct staking capabilities. For example, investors could stake BAND for up to 11.7% APR on major exchanges.

As a result of the May sell-off, which saw more than $1.2 trillion in value wiped out of the cryptocurrency market, many of the top projects are now well below their all-time high values and trading at what some investors would describe as “bargain bin” prices.

While market participants remain unsure as to which way prices are headed in the short term, it would be wise to investigate these opportunities sooner rather than later, as the notoriously volatile crypto market can make significant moves at the drop of a hat.

Want more information about diversification into the above mentioned projects?

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Altcoin Roundup: Post-crash prices give investors a chance to build a diversified portfolio

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Curve (CRV) sees 150% rebound as DeFi bottoms and ETH gas fees drop

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DeFi tokens and protocols took a heavy hit on May 19 as Bitcoin price dropped to $30,000 and while BTC has entered what some analysts describe as a ‘compression’ phase, the total value locked in DeFi and the value many of the sector’s tokens have yet to rebound to the levels seen before the market crash.

Curve DAO token (CRV) stands among the few DeFi tokens that have seen a strong recovery over the past two weeks due to reduced Ethereum gas fees, the launch of Convex Finance and the DeFi sector beginning to find a bottom. 

CRV/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that CRV has increased 55% since June 1, rallying from a low of $1.76 on June 1 to an intraday high at $2.76 on June 3 alongside a 250% increase in 24-hour trading volume.

Convex Finance launch attracts CRV holders

One source of the sudden rise in price and momentum for CRV is Convex Finance (CVX), an optimizer for the Curve Protocol that enables swaps of similar assets like stablecoin to stablecoin transactions.

Since it’s official launch on May 17, the Convex protocol has rapidly gained a substantial user base thanks to yields as high as 52.16% and some analysts have suggested that the protocol is challenging  Yearn.finance for CRV-related deposits.

Data from Defi Llama shows that in the two and a half weeks since the launch of Convex Finance, the total value locked (TVL) on the protocol has surpassed $2.3 billion with stakers on the protocol earning $4.3 million in total revenue.

Total value locked on Convex. Source: Defi Llama

Both Convex Finance and Yearn.finance rely heavily on CRV for the operation of their platforms and the increased activity has resulted in a decline in the circulating supply of CRV. This may have helped to boost CR price as investors clamor to stake tokens for the highest return possible.

Curve Finance and the wider DeFi ecosystem could also be benefitting from the sharp decline in gas fees on the Ethereum (ETH) network, which had previously priced out many retail traders from performing the simple approval and confirmation transactions required to stake and claim earnings from DeFi protocols.

Average Ethereum gas fee. Source: Etherscan

Lower fees have allowed a wider range of users to re-engage with their favorite DeFi protocols, and Curve has been a significant beneficiary of this development.

The VORTECS™ indicator flashed before the breakout 

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for CRV on May 31, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. CRV price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for CRV registered bullish readings throughout the past week with a high of 77 coming late in the day on May 31. This was roughly 15 hours before the price rallied 55% over the next 48 hours days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Curve (CRV) sees 150% rebound as DeFi bottoms and ETH gas fees drop

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Amid rising stablecoin inflow, cautious traders fear a dead cat bounce

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The recent extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market following Bitcoin’s (BTC) dip to $30,000 and the recovery to $38,000 has traders confused about whether the current price action is a ‘dead cat bounce’ which will see token prices head lower or a solid reversal that will set the floor for the next leg higher for the market. 

While BTC price still remains more than 40% below its all-time high of $64,863, bulls have managed to weather multiple attempts to significantly break below support at $36,000. 

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

A closer analysis of on-chain data and exchange inflows shows that Bitcoin’s sell-off led to the market-wide downturn and Delphi Digital analyst Nick Pappageorge highlighted the fact that BTC inflow to exchanges “topped over 20,000 BTC in just one hour on Wednesday,” which was the highest level sesince March 2020.

BTC exchange inflows. Source: Delphi Digital

FUD-o-rama destabilizes the market

One of the major sources of market turbulence identified by Pappageorge was the seemingly daily FUD headlines, including yet another Chinese government ban of cryptocurrencies and concerns that Tesla would dump its Bitcoin holdings. These back-to-back fear-laced narratives led retail traders to offload their coins on exchanges to escape a further price slide.

Pappageorge also pointed to concerns raised by a pair of hacks on the Binance Smart Chain which saw the price of PancakeSwap (CAKE) and Pancake Bunny (BUNNY) plunge, with the latter being drained of $45 million worth of user funds as compounding market fears.

The turnaround in sentiment this week has been in part fueled by positive headlines such as the formation of a Bitcoin mining council following a meeting between Elon Musk, Michael Saylor and North American Bitcoin miners, which has helped spark a turnaround in BTC and altcoins. The quick reversal so triggered the debate on whether the current market activity resembles a dead-cat-bounce or a trend reversal. 

Experienced traders accumulate at lower prices

While many of the newer entrants to the cryptocurrency market have found the recent volatility nauseating, the more experienced investors jumped at the chance to accumulate BTC at a 50% discount as the number of new accumulation addresses reached new all-time highs amid the shakeout.

Number of Bitcoin accumulation addresses. Source: Glassnode

Well-known Twitter personality and Bitcoin analyst PlanB posted the following chart showing how Bitcoin oscillates around the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, showing the recent downturn is well within the standard range it deviates.

BTC price oscillations around S2F model. Source: PlanB

PlanB said:

“Buying opportunities like today are rare (Q1 2019 when I wrote the S2F article, March 2020 due to covid, and now). Life is all about choices.”

As for bullish signs needed to support a quick recovery, the May 24 Delphi Daily report from Ashwath Balakrishnan highlighted the “sharply rising” circulating supply of fiat-backed stablecoins, which has increased from “15 billion to nearly 21 billion in the last 5 days.”

Stablecoin circulating supply. Source: Delphi Digital

While this could be a sign that dip buyers are “loading up ammo,” Balakrishnan was sure to note that “it could also just be stablecoin arbitrageurs” and stressed the importance of “ensuring that the circulating supply doesn’t drop sharply to confirm these inflows will be deployed.”

A record amount of dry powder is now available on exchanges but at the same time, an entirely new cohort of cryptocurrency investors who just experienced their first 50% pullback are now wondering if they should pull out the market or double-down on their investment. The more experienced in the crowd are betting that the market is headed higher but further volatility is all but guaranteed.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Amid rising stablecoin inflow, cautious traders fear a dead cat bounce

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Celo rallies 50% as excitement builds for the upcoming ‘Donut’ hardfork

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Decentralized finance (DeFi) has emerged as a transformational force for not just the cryptocurrency market, but for financial markets in general in 2021 thanks to the ease of access and security offered by blockchain-based protocols which operate on smart contracts.

One project that is looking to take the simplicity of DeFi to the next level is Celo (CELO), an open blockchain ecosystem that makes financial tools accessible to anyone with a mobile phone. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of CELO rallied 50% from a low of $4.29 late on May 16 to an intraday high at $6.70 on May 18 on the back of a 740% surge in 24-hour trading volume. 

CELO/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

A quick scroll through the project’s twitter feed shows that excitement in the Celo community has been building in recent weeks due to the upcoming ‘Donut’ hardfork that is scheduled for May 19.

According to documentation from the team, the hard fork will unlock numerous benefits to Celo users, including increased gas efficiency, improved proof-of-stake interoperability and the ability to connect with many of the Ethereum (ETH) tools available like MetaMask.

Some of the other layer-one protocols that the upgrade will help Celo more smoothly interoperate with include Cosmos (ATOM), NEAR and Solana (SOL).

Bullish momentum for CELO was picked up in the VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, which began to detect a positive outlook for the token on May 13, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. CELO price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score rose into the green zone on May 13 and remained elevated for two days with a high score of 73 coming on May 14, roughly 67 hours before CELO price rallied 50% higher.

With DeFi still in its infancy and interoperability arising as a go-to feature for any network with long-term aspirations, Celo appears well-positioned to experience further growth and token appreciation thanks to its focus on catering to smartphone users and aiming to make interacting with DeFi globally accessible and user friendly.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Celo rallies 50% as excitement builds for the upcoming \’Donut\’ hardfork

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Facebook’s Diem Unveils Its Latest Stablecoin Plans and Strategic Move to the United States

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Facebook’s Diem Unveils Its Latest Stablecoin Plans and Strategic Move to the United States

Diem Association, previously known as Facebook’s Libra initiative, announced on Wednesday that it plans to launch a US dollar stablecoin as it scales down its global goals to concentrate on the US.

The group, which includes 26 financial institutions and non-profits, announced that it was relocating its core activities from Switzerland to the United States and withdrawing its application for a payment system license from the Swiss financial regulator.

Diem Networks US, a subsidiary of the Deim Association, would operate a blockchain-based payment mechanism that allows for real-time Diem stablecoin transfers and will file as a money services company with the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, according to the organization.

Digital currencies that are pegged to a fiat currency are known as stablecoins. Silvergate Bank, headquartered in California, will establish the Diem USD stablecoin and maintain the Diem USD deposit. Diem mentioned that a stablecoin pilot would be launched, but did not specify when.

The association said, “We are committed to a payment mechanism that is secure for customers and companies, allows payments quicker, and is less expensive.”

Diem’s decision to remove its application for a payment license was reported by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority in a statement.

“Diem plans to introduce the payment system from the United States in the first step since the project’s initial target market would be the United States,” it added.

Libra was first announced by Facebook in June 2019, as part of a larger initiative to move beyond social networking and into e-commerce and global payments. Libra, along with partners such as payment providers and credit card companies, will create a digital currency backed by a diverse range of currencies and short-term government debt, according to the statement. Libra is expected to fuel transfers between customers and companies all over the world, giving more users access to financial services, according to the social media giant. However, lawmakers around the world were quick to oppose the project, fearing that it would erode their influence over the financial system, allow crime, and compromise users’ privacy.

Libra and its partners scrapped attempts to keep a portfolio of currencies and sovereign debt in April 2020, opting instead for stablecoins backed by global currencies, and sought approval from the Swiss regulator. Libra rebranded as Diem in December in a revived attempt to win regulatory clearance, with its spectrum narrowed even further to a single dollar-backed digital coin.

Diem now has 26 founders and a minority investor, including Facebook’s wireless wallet Novi.

Facebook’s Diem Unveils Its Latest Stablecoin Plans and Strategic Move to the United States

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