Market Analysis

Jun 15 2021

Ethereum price bounce to $2.6K fails to excite neutral-to-bearish pro traders

While speaking at the Virtual Fintech Forum in Hong Kong on May 27, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin commented on obstacles related to the Ethereum 2.0 rollout. Buterin said that there had been several internal team conflicts in the past five years and as a result, he confirmed that Ethereum 2.0 launch is unlikely to occur before late 2022.

In a May 22 report from Goldman Sachs, analysts said that Ether has a “high chance of overtaking Bitcoin as a dominant store of value.” Furthermore, the report noted the growth of the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and the nonfungible token (NFT) ecosystems being built on Ethereum. Coincidentally, on the very next day, Ether’s price bottomed at $1,750.

On June 14, CoinShares released its weekly fund flows report and Ether investment products had the largest outflows, totaling $12.7 million.

However, the upcoming $1.5 billion options expiry on June 25 could be a turning point for Ether, according to Cointelegraph. This figure is 30% larger than the March 26 expiry, which took place as Ether’s price plunged 17% in five days and bottomed near $1,550.

Despite flirting with $2,600 after a 12% rally over the past week, top Ether traders seem unable to change their neutral-to-bearish positioning according to derivatives data.

The 3-month futures premium is neutral-to-bearish

Normally, Tte 3-month futures will usually trade at a premium to regular spot exchanges. In addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and usually charges more.

The 6% to 17% annualized return on stablecoin lending indicates bullishness whenever the 3-month premium trades above that range. On the other hand, when futures are trading below the stablecoin lending rate, it is a signal of short-term bearish sentiment.

Huobi ETH Sept. futures premium vs. spot market. Source: TradingView

As shown above, the 8% premium — 26% annualized — vanished on May 13, indicating extreme optimism. Since then, it has been ranging near 2.8%, which is equivalent to 10% annualized. Thus, top traders are neutral-to-bearish according to this indicator as it nears the lower level of the expected range.

The options skew shows moderate signs of fear

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when the protective put options premium is trading higher. Whenever this metric surpasses 10%, it is considered a “fear” indicator.

The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range

Deribit Ethereum options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

From May 20 to June 8, the indicator stood near 10%, indicating a higher protective put premium, which is usually a ‘fear’ indicator. However, over the last week, it has slightly improved to 7%, within the “neutral” range, but still close to bearish sentiment.

There is no evidence of bullish growth in top traders’ confidence as Ether tests the $2,600 resistance. So until those indicators flip to neutral-to-bullish, traders should act with extreme care before concluding that a bull run is in place.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price bounce to $2.6K fails to excite neutral-to-bearish pro traders

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Jun 14 2021

Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today’s $41K pump

Sometimes all Bitcoin (BTC) needs to pump 10% is a positive remark from someone like Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO has been pointed to as the culprit for the recent downturn after the company’s May 12 announcement explaining that it would no longer accept Bitcoin payments due to environmental concerns. Musk followed up by saying that he was looking into other cryptocurrencies that required 99% less energy consumption.

However, on June 13, the situation reversed as Musk reassured the public that Tesla did not sell any additional Bitcoin. The post also said that the electric-car producer would resume taking BTC payments as soon as its Bitcoin mining relied on a minimum of 50% clean energy.

In bear markets, top traders act with caution

While retail investors and algorithmic trading bots jump into action as soon as bullish or bearish signals and news flash, top traders tend to act more with more caution. Those who have been around the crypto markets long enough know that positive news might end up being ignored or severely downplayed in bear markets.

On the other hand, even potentially negative news seems to have little to no impact during bull runs. For example, on Sept. 26, 2020, Kucoin was hacked for $150 million. The following week, on Oct. 1, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged BitMEX for operating an unregistered trading platform and violating Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

Two weeks later, police reportedly questioned the founder of OKEx, forcing the exchange to suspend crypto withdrawals. Had this series of negative news happened while Bitcoin was flat or in a bearish phase, the price would have undoubtedly have stalled during a bear market.

*Bitcoin price at Coinbase in USD, Sept. 2020. Source: TradingView*

As shown above, Bitcoin barely had any negative impact in late September and October 2020. In fact, by the end of November 2020, Bitcoin was up 74% in two months. This is the main reason why top traders tend to ignore positive news during bear markets and vice-versa.

The 3-month futures premium is neutral

A futures contract seller will usually demand a price premium to regular spot exchanges. This situation is not exclusive to crypto markets and happens in every derivatives market because in addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and this results in a higher price.

The 3-month futures premium (basis rate) usually trades at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. When futures are trading below the regular spot exchange price, it signals a short-term bearish sentiment.

*Huobi 3-month Bitcoin futures basis. Source: Skew*

As shown above, the future basis has been below 11% since May 20 and flirting with bearish territory on multiple occasions as it tested 5%. The current level indicates a neutral position from top traders.

The options skew is no longer signaling fear

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options side-by-side. It will turn positive when the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range.

*Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch*

The above chart confirms that top traders, including arbitrage desks and market markers, are currently uncomfortable with Bitcoin price as the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher. However, the current 7% positive skew is far from the 20% exaggerated fear seen in late May.

Derivatives markets show no evidence of top traders getting excited about the recent $40,000 hike. On the bright side, there is room for leverage buyers to mount positions. Stronger upswings usually occur when investors are least expecting, and the current scenario seems to be a perfect example.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin derivatives data shows pro traders ignored today’s $41K pump

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Jun 07 2021

Bitcoin price is fragile, but on-chain data points to fresh accumulation

The May 19 crypto market sell-off saw $1.2 trillion in value erased from the total market capitalization as the froth and excess leverage of over-hyped markets was quickly eliminated.

But similar to a forest fire, whose destructive power is essential to the rejuvenation of a forest’s ecosystem, dramatic market shake-outs are a vital part of the full life cycle of a developing market, as excesses that have accumulated are burned away and cleared in order to set the stage for a new round of growth.

According to data from Glassnode, the past month saw a “historically large decline” in on-chain activity, “transitioning rapidly from booming on-chain economies at ATH prices, to almost completely clear mempools and waning demand for transactions and settlement.”

This clearing of congestion helped address the rising cost of fees on both the Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) networks which have now “returned to mid-2020 levels of around $3.50 to $4.50” after experiencing short term spikes as high as $60 in April and May but given the lingering price action from BTC and Ether, traders are also worried whether the market has shifted from bullish to bearish.

*Bitcoin vs. Ether average transaction fee. Source:* *Glassnode*

The drop in activity has resulted in a 65% decline in the total USD denominated transfer volume settled by the Bitcoin network and a 60% decrease in value transferred on Ethereum, marking the second largest declines for the networks behind the 80% drop for Bitcoin in 2017 and the 95% drop for Ethereum in 2018.

Long term holders accumulate

Although the on-chain activity paints a grim picture for some, as short-term holders were the hardest hit by the downturn, a closer look shows that long-term holders (LTH) have started accumulating again, a sign that the worst of the shake-out may have passed.

*Long-term holder net position change. Source:* *Glassnode*

As seen in the chart above, the supply held by long-term BTC holders has begun to accelerate upward following a period of distribution that happened as the price rallied from $10,000 to $64,000. This rising figure indicates that the “LTH supply is now in a firm uptrend,” and is similar to the trend seen during the “late 2017 bull and early 2018 bear.”

Glassnode said:

“This fractal describes the inflection point where LTHs stop spending, start re-accumulating and hodling what are now considered cheap coins.”

Further bullishness can be found in the fact that the amount of BTC currently held by LTHs is 2.3 million more than at the peak of 2017, indicating that the long-term view of these token holders is that the market is headed higher.

One final indication that the market may be consolidating in preparation for its next move higher can be found looking at the change in the liquid and illiquid supply of BTC over the past 6 months.

*Bitcoin liquid and highly liquid supply. Source:* *Glassnode*

As seen in the chart above, 160,700 BTC went from an illiquid state back into liquid circulation during the month of May, representing just 22% of the total supply that moved from liquid to illiquid since March 2020.

This means that 78% of the BTC acquired since then remains unspent, indicating an overall positive outlook by long-term holders.

While it’s impossible to be certain about the next steps for the cryptocurrency market thanks to factors like unpredictable volatility, erratic tweets from influencers and the rumors of surprise government crackdowns, on-chain data indicates a positive long-term outlook that should resume once the current shake-out and consolidation periods subside.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price is fragile, but on-chain data points to fresh accumulation

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Jun 04 2021

Altcoin Roundup: Post-crash prices give investors a chance to build a diversified portfolio

Welcome to Cointelegraph Market’s Altcoin Roundup, an in-depth newsletter that focuses on investing from the perspective of fundamental analysis and seeks to identify emerging blockchain projects and tokens that fill niche demands within the growing cryptocurrency market.

The concept of multi-sector investing has long been advocated in traditional finance as the conventional approach to building a balanced portfolio. Typical allocations include representation of stocks, government and corporate bonds, commodities and real estate.

Now that the cryptocurrency market has grown to a multitrillion-dollar ecosystem with numerous emerging assets, clear sectors are beginning to emerge. Savvy crypto investors looking to apply portfolio diversification practices to their holdings should begin to pay attention.

*Total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

The previous Altcoin Roundup discussed some of the top layer-one solutions and coins like Polkadot/DOT, Cosmos/ATOM and Solana/SOL that have been gaining prominence over the past year, but these projects could also fall under the large-cap investment umbrella alongside high-profile assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Cardano’s ADA.

Once an investor has an adequate representation of blue-chip projects, other emerging sectors like decentralized finance (DeFi), oracles and stablecoins can be considered.

DeFi: Uniswap, Aave and PancakeSwap

Decentralized finance emerged during the summer of DeFi in 2020, and the sector helped kick off the current bull market by bringing a new level of excitement to the crypto ecosystem, which was in need of the next big innovation.

One of the best metrics used to demonstrate the rising success of DeFi as a whole is the total value locked (TVL) ranking, which collectively reached an all-time high at $157.63 billion on May 14, according to data from Defi Llama, and stands at $116.62 billion at the time of writing.

The release of Uniswap’s decentralized exchange (DEX) interface — which enabled new projects to immediately launch and made tokens available to the general public — helped ignite a wave of growth and innovation across the market that continues to expand to this day.

In less than a year, Uniswap evolved into the top DEX serving the crypto community, seeing an all-time record of $5.74 billion in 24-hour trading volume during the market sell-off on May 19 and $5.37 billion in total volume locked on the platform.

*Daily DEX volume. Source:* *Dune Analytics*

The vast array of liquidity pools is the primary allure for investors looking to diversify their crypto portfolio. Through these pools, stakers have the ability to earn a yield by providing liquidity for the exchange in return for a portion of the trading fees. A number of pools offer staking returns ranging from 25% to 2,000%, and traders are able to select pools based on a variety of factors, including their appetite for risk.

While Uniswap has led the way for DEXs, there are other options like Aave’s lending platform that has emerged as the highest-ranking DeFi protocol by total value locked, with more than $14.1 billion in TVL at the time of writing.

Aave’s recent decision to offer layer-two (L2) access on Polygon has brought renewable energy to the AAVE ecosystem, as traders and liquidity gladly migrated to the lower-fee environment offered on Polygon. This resulted in a significant boost in TVL for both AAVE and Polygon’s native token, MATIC, which is now the second-ranked protocol by TVL, with $11.08 billion locked on the protocol.

Every balanced portfolio also has a small 1% to 5% allocation reserved for higher-risk assets, and the crypto market has no shortage of high-risk, high-growth assets.

For tokenholders who are open to a little more risk in return for higher yields, the Binance Smart Chain-based PancakeSwap boasts a TVL of $7.67 billion, and offers annual percentage rates (APR) of up to 482.54%, according to the project’s website, with all rewards paid out in the protocol’s native CAKE token.

Stablecoins are the new “savings accounts”

Though a token that stays pegged to a fixed value may not sound like the most attractive opportunity for investors, stablecoins have evolved to play a crucial role in the functioning of the wider cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Stablecoins often serve as the backbone of trading pairs on centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as offering traders a simple way to lock in gains.

The two most prominent stablecoins are Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which have circulating supplies of $60.9 billion and $21.6 billion tokens, respectively. Tether is currently the most traded crypto token, boasting 24-hour trading volumes that range from $100 billion to $290 billion.

*Tether (USDT) vs. USD Coin (USDC) vs. DAI circulating supply. Source:* *CoinGecko*

Other popular stablecoins include Binance USD (BUSD), the stablecoin created for use within the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem, as well as the algorithmically controlled stablecoin DAI, which is minted via pledging collateral on the Maker protocol.

For those looking to earn a little extra yield while in the safety of stablecoins, there are multiple options available such as depositing tokens into a lending protocol like AAVE to earn up to 5% on deposits or the decentralized stablecoin exchange Curve, which offers yields of up to 50% for some stablecoins pools offered.

Other popular options include supplying liquidity for the various decentralized exchanges like PancakeSwap, which offers 8.64% for its DAI-BUSD liquidity pool, or QuickSwap, which offers a reward plus fee of the annual percent yield of 15.01% for its USDT-USDC pool and 26.75% for its DAI-USDC pool.

Oracles

In a world that is becoming increasingly dominated by digital data, no cryptocurrency portfolio would be complete without access to an oracle provider. These entities are the industry’s heavyweights that facilitate the secure exchange of data and information within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, as well as wider financial markets.

Currently, Chainlink is one of the most dominant oracle projects and a key player that comprises a thriving open-source community of data providers, node operators, smart contract developers, researchers and security auditors.

We’re half way through May and $LINK already boasts 35 integrations!

I see an integrations all time high being smashed with ease this month.

With #Chainlink you just win, in every possible aspect.

View all Chainlink integrations at: https://t.co/vb2t14UStM pic.twitter.com/ERd2xgeDdc

— TheLinkMarine 2.0 (@TheLinkMarine1) May 18, 2021

While the Chainlink network doesn’t currently offer a direct way to earn a yield through a simplified staking or governance mechanism, it is easy for tokenholders to put their stash to work in DEX liquidity pools and DeFi protocols like Aave.

For investors who are not ready to trust decentralized exchanges and DeFi platforms, centralized yield-bearing companies like Nexo, Celsius and BlockFi are also available for crypto investors looking to earn a return on their holdings.

Centralized exchanges like Coinbase and Binance also offer direct staking capabilities. For example, investors could stake BAND for up to 11.7% APR on major exchanges.

As a result of the May sell-off, which saw more than $1.2 trillion in value wiped out of the cryptocurrency market, many of the top projects are now well below their all-time high values and trading at what some investors would describe as “bargain bin” prices.

While market participants remain unsure as to which way prices are headed in the short term, it would be wise to investigate these opportunities sooner rather than later, as the notoriously volatile crypto market can make significant moves at the drop of a hat.

Want more information about diversification into the above mentioned projects?

Altcoin Roundup: Post-crash prices give investors a chance to build a diversified portfolio

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May 31 2021

Bitcoin rejects near $37.5K, on-chain data shows capitulation from short-term holders

Bitcoin started the week off with an abrupt bullish breakout to $37,500, a level some analysts have identified as a crucial ‘line in the sand’, but the rally was short-lived as BTC met selling near the lower arm of the bearish pennant that can be seen on multiple timeframes.

While many traders are concerned that the 2021 bull market is now over and considering whether gains should be locked in, on-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders have been accumulating in preparation for a potential 2013-style double-pump that has the potential to elevate BTC to a fresh all-time high.

*BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source:* *TradingView*

Ether (ETH), on the other hand, rallied 8% to $2,677 as chatter about a possible ‘flippening’ between Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to be a topic of discussion. Most recently, Bloomberg speculated that Ether could one-day surpass Bitcoin as the world’s cryptocurrency of choice.

Short-term holders are feeding the sell-off

Further insights into what is feeding the uncertainty in the markets can be found in the most recent “Week on-chain” report from Glassnode which looked at the activity of short-term holders (STH), who are newer market entrants that hold coins younger than 155 days, and long-term holders (LTH) who hold coins older than 155 days.

According to the Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL) metric, which provides insight into the average age of all UTXOs spent that day, LTHs primarily held through the recent dip as evidenced by the ASOL falling dramatically “back to levels below the accumulation range seen between $50,000 and $60,000.”

*Bitcoin average spent output lifespan. Source:* *Glassnode*

Further proof that it has been STHs that are behind the sell-off can be found by comparing the amount of on-chain Bitcoin transfer volume that is in profit (LTHs) to the at a loss (STHs).

According to data from Glassnode, LTHs were seen taking profits early in the 2021 rally from $10,000 to $42,000 before their spending “reached a fairly stable baseline,” with last week’s sell-off “having little effect on their spending patterns” indicating “that LTHs are generally unwilling to liquidate coins at reduced prices.”

This compares to the behavior of STHs who “increased their spending by over 5x during this sell-off with the maximum spending occurring near the current local low of the market.”

Evidence of this can also be found in a review of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for STHs, who continue to realize losses by spending coins that were accumulated at higher prices at the current lower prices, indicating capitulation.

*Short-term Bitcoin holder SOPR. Source:* *Glassnode*

According to Glassnode: s

“Without doubt, the current market structure is best described as a battleground between the bulls and the bears with a clear trend forming between long-term and short-term investors. This is a battle of HODLer conviction and immediate buying power.”

Bitcoin rejects near $37.5K, on-chain data shows capitulation from short-term holders

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